Paddy Power ac etholiadau'r Cynulliad

Hoff safle betio blogmenai ydi un Paddy Power, y bwci dyfeisgar Gwyddelig. Am y tro cyntaf (dwi'n meddwl) mae'n cynnig prisiau am pob etholaeth Gymreig.


O ran Plaid Cymru mae'n ffefryn ym mhob sedd sydd eisoes yn ei dwylo - gan gynnwys Aberconwy lle mae'n ffefryn clir. Weler'r ffigyrau cyfredol isod (mae prisiau bwci yn newid trwy'r amser wrth gwrs).

Aberconwy - Iwan Huws - 1/7
Arfon - Alun Ffred - 1/12
Dwyrain Caerfyrddin - Rhodri Glyn - 1/100
Ceredigion - Elin Jones - 1/9
Meirion Dwyfor - Dafydd Elis Thomas - 1/200
Llanelli - Helen Mary Jones - 4/7
Ynys Mon - Ieuan Wyn - 1/16

Daw'r Blaid hefyd yn ail yng ngolwg Paddy Power yn yr isod:

Aberafon - Paul Nicholls Jones - 20/1
Caerffili - Ron Davies - 5/2
Gorllewin Caerdydd - Neil McEvoy - 12/1 (ail ar y cyd efo'r Toriaid)
Cwm Cynon - Dafydd Trystan - 18/1
Islwyn - Steffan Lewis - 16/1
Merthyr - Noel Turner - 20/1
Castell Nedd - Alun Llywelyn - 9/1
Ogwr - Danny Clarke - 16/1 (ar y cyd efo'r Toriaid)
Pontypridd - Ioan Bellin- 20/1 (ar y cyd efo'r Lib Dems)
Rhondda - Sera Evans-Fear - 16/1
Dwyrain Abertawe - Dic Jones - 16/1

Mi fyddwn yn awgrymu mai'r bargeinion gorau yma i unrhyw un sydd eisiau betio ar y Blaid ydi Cwm Cynon ac o bosibl Castell Nedd.

'Dydi'r fargen orau ddim yn ymddangos uchod fodd bynnag. Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro ydi honno. Mae Paddy Power yn rhoi Nerys Evans yn drydydd ar 4/1. Mae'r bwcis eraill yn ei rhoi yn ail clir ac yn cynnig tua 2/1 arni. Felly os ydych yn un am fetio, brysiwch - wnaiff y pris yna ddim aros yn hir.

Mae'n ddiddorol nodi hefyd bod y bwci yn rhoi'r un prisiau am Louise Hughes (Llais Gwynedd) ym Meirion Dwyfor ac Owain Williams (Llais Gwynedd) yn Arfon. Mae'n cynnig 100/1 am y ddau - er nad ydi enw Owain Williams ar y papur pleidleisio.

Betio etholiadol

Fydd yna byth rhyw fynd mawr ar fetio ar etholiadau Cymreig - pobl am fetio ar gyffylau ydan ni yn hytrach nag ar ymgeiswyr etholiadol. O ganlyniad 'dydi'r cwmniau betio ddim yn cynnig llawer o farchnadoedd gan amlaf.

Beth bynnag 'dwi'n tueddu i gredu bod prisiau'r bwci yn ffordd tra effeithiol i ddarogan beth fydd yn digwydd mewn etholiad - yn arbennig felly tua diwedd ymgyrch. Mae pobl yn rhoi eu pres lle mae eu cegau pan maent yn betio - felly 'dydi pobl ddim yn betio ar chwarae bach.

Ladbrokes ydi un o'r ychydig gwmniau sy'n cynnig prisiau ar hyn o bryd, a dwy farchnad sydd ganddynt yn agored - nifer seddi Llafur ac etholaeth hynod ddiddorol Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro.

Yn groes i'r polau piniwn mae'r farchnad seddi Llafur yn awgrymu na fyddant yn cael mwyafrif llwyr.

Mae'r farchnad Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro yn awgrymu mai rhwng Nerys Evans (Plaid Cymru) a Christine Gwyther (Llafur) mae pethau, gyda Angela Burns (Tori) yn weddol glir y tu ol i'r ddwy arall.

Diweddariad - dwi newydd sylwi bod Victor Chandler yn cynnig prisiau ar nifer o etholaethau Cymreig. Mae rhai o'r prisiau yn ddigon rhyfedd (cyfle i rhywun wneud arian o bosibl). Mae yna hefyd gamgymeriadau - rhestrir ymgeiswyr Llais Gwynedd a'r BNP yn Arfon er nad oes rhai'n sefyll, ac nid oes prisiau ar gyfer y Tori - er bod un yn sefyll.

Gwneud synnwyr o'r polau piniwn

Cyhoeddwyd pum pol piniwn (Prydeinig) neithiwr - ac fel arfer roeddynt yn weddol wahanol i'w gilydd. Gallwch weld y manylion yma ac yma os oes gennych ddiddordeb yn y math yma o beth.

'Dwi heb son rhyw lawer am bolau piniwn fel rheol - mae yna ormod ohonyn nhw ac mae'n anodd gwybod beth i'w wneud o'r gwahaniaethau rhwng rhai ohonyn nhw. Serch hynny mae'r polau sy'n cael eu cymryd yn nyddiau diwethaf ymgyrch etholiadol yn aml yn arwyddocaol, nid cymaint oherwydd eu bod yn gywir nag am eu bod yn aml yn dangos gogwydd fydd weithiau yn cael ei chwyddo ar ddiwrnod yr etholiad ei hun. Mae'r rhan fwyaf o'r rhai diweddaraf yn dangos gogwydd bach at y Toriaid ac oddi wrth y Lib Dems gyda Llafur yn aros yn yr unfan. Nid yw'n ymddangos i Bigotgate wneud mymryn o ddrwg i Lafur er gwaethaf yr holl rincian dannedd ar y pryd, gyda llaw.

Beth bynnag, a chymryd y polau presennol fel maen nhw, a chymryd bod y gogwydd yn gyson tros y DU mae pob un yn rhoi'r Toriaid yn gyntaf o ran seddi, Llafur yn ail a'r Lib Dems yn drydydd. Maen nhw i gyd hefyd yn awgrymu mai senedd grog fydd yn ein haros tros y misoedd nesaf o leiaf.

Yr hyn sy'n ychwanegu cryn ansicrwydd i'r sefyllfa ydi ei bod yn anhebygol y bydd y gogwydd yn unffurf ar hyd y DU. Yn y gorffennol roedd gogwydd etholiadol yn tueddu i fod yn debyg iawn ar hyd y DU, ond mewn etholiadau diweddar cafwyd llawer mwy o amrywiaeth rhanbarthol. Mae'n ddigon posibl y bydd y duedd yma'n parhau ac yn cryfhau.

Ffactor arall sy'n gwneud darogan yn anodd ydi ei bod yn lled sicr y bydd yna cryn dipyn o bleidleisio tactegol yn erbyn Llafur. Mae'r polau piniwn i gyd yn awgrymu'n gryf mai dyma'r llywodraeth mwyaf amhoblogaidd ers i bawb gael y bleidlais ar ddechrau'r ganrif ddiwethaf. O dan amgylchiadau felly bydd pobl yn aml yn pleidleisio'n negyddol yn erbyn y llywodraeth. Digwyddodd hyn ar raddfa eang pan daflwyd yr ail lywodraeth mwyaf amhoblogaidd allan ym 1997.

Y prif amrywiaeth yn y polau ydi'r bleidlais a roddir i Lafur - mae Angus Reid yn awgrymu mai 23% y byddant yn ei gael tra bod ICM yn rhoi 29% iddynt. Mae gwahaniaeth mawr rhwng y ddau ffigwr yma - ac mae'n cyfieithu i wahaniaeth arwyddocaol mewn seddi. Mae Angus Reid yn gyson yn rhoi llai o bleidleisiau i Lafur na'r un cwmni arall, ac mae'n newydd (ac felly heb ei brofi) i wleidyddiaeth Prydeinig. Mae gan y cwmni, fodd bynnag, record dda mewn gwledydd eraill.

Yn hanesyddol polau sydd ar eithafion yr amrediad arferol sy'n tueddu i fod yn gywir. Mae gan gwmniau polio Prydeinig hanes hir o or gynrychioli'r bleidlais Lafur. Maent wedi ceisio addasu eu methodoleg tros y blynyddoedd i ddelio efo'r sefyllfa yma. Byddwn yn gwybod pa mor llwyddiannus fu'r newidiadau hynny erbyn bore dydd Gwener.

O edrych yn ol tros yr uchod 'dwi'n rhyw boeni fy mod wedi cynhyrchu mwy o fwg nag o oleini. Hwyrach mai'r ffordd orau o grisialu'r sefyllfa ydi fel hyn - mi fydd yna gryn amrywiaeth yng nghanlyniadau etholaethau unigol gyda phobl sydd yn edrych yn saff yn colli eu seddi, a rhai sy'n ymddangos i fod mewn perygl yn eu cadw nhw.

Cyfle da i'r sawl sydd a gwybodaeth fewnol leol ennill ceiniog neu ddwy gan y bwci mi dybiwn.

Ladbrokes - y diweddaraf

Seat Winner - Aberavon

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting Aberavon\'s chief claim to political fame was that it was represented by Ramsay MacDonald who, in 1924, became Labour\'s first Prime Minister, causing King George V to write in his diary \"Today 23 years ago dear Grandmama (Queen Victoria) died. I wonder what she would have thought of a Labour Government!\" In 1931, his second term of office, he was compelled to form a National Government in which a majority of MPs were from the Conservatives. As a result he was expelled from the Labour Party which accused him of \"betrayal\". Aberavon is a Labour stronghold. It boasts one of Wales\'s longest Blue Flag beaches and is regarded as a surfing \"hot spot\" all the year round.	Labour	1/500	+648
		Liberal Democrats	20/1
		Plaid Cymru	33/1
		Conservatives	50/1
		BNP	100/1
		Andrew Tuton	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Captain Beany	200/1

Seat Winner - Aberconwy

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting Aberconwy is a new seat which comprises parts of the old seats of Conwy (Labour held) and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy (Plaid Cymru). It includes the holiday resort of Llandudno regarded as a Conservative area, but excludes Bangor, seen as a Labour stronghold which was part of the old Conwy constituency. The new seat has a diverse population of Welsh-speakers in the rural areas and English-speakers along the coast. Plaid won the new seat in the 2007 Welsh Assembly election but on past form in the old constituency it should be a Labour-Tory fight in the Westminster election.	Conservatives	4/9	+648
		Plaid Cymru	4/1
		Liberal Democrats	6/1
		Labour	10/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1

Seat Winner - Alyn & Deeside

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This constituency, geographically one of the smallest in Wales, contains Connah`s Quay power station, the Corus steel plant, the Toyota Engine factory and BAE Systems in Broughton where the wings for the new Airbus A380 are manufactured. The constituency was created in 1983 and has always, so far, returned a Labour MP. Gladstone lived in this area for a time at his wife\'s family\'s estate in Hawarden. He donated his 32,000 books to the St Deiniol\'s Library, Hawarden, hauling most of them himself, at the age of 85, the quarter-of-a-mile from his home to the library in a wheelbarrow.	Labour	1/3	+648
		Conservatives	9/4
		Liberal Democrats	25/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Arfon

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a new - or rather revived - constituency based on the north Wales towns of Bangor and Caernarfon. \"Arfon\" is a historical name for the area, meaning \"facing Anglesey\". It was formerly a constituency, existing from 1885 to 1918 when it was abolished. It is expected to be a battle for supremacy between Labour and Plaid Cymru although the nationalists easily won it in the 2007 Welsh Assembly election.	Plaid Cymru	1/10	+648
		Labour	6/1
		Conservatives	14/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Blaenau Gwent

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This constituency, formerly called Ebbw Vale was once held by Aneurin Bevan, founder of the National Health Service, and Michael Foot, former Labour leader. It was once the safest Labour seat in the land where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have secured pitiful support. But a row over an all-woman short list cost Labour the seat in 2005. It was won by Independent Peter Law who died within a year. At the subsequent by-election, Labour again failed and the seat was won by Law\'s former campaign manager Dai Davies.	Dai Davies	8/11	+648
		Labour	evens
		Conservatives	100/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Socialist Labour Party	100/1

Seat Winner - Brecon & Radnorshire

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is, by area, the largest single constituency in England and Wales. It is also one of the most picturesque seats in the country, containing Brecon Beacons National Park. It was once a Labour stronghold. It flirted for a while with the Conservatives but has been in Liberal Democrat hands since 1997. The present incumbent, Roger Williams, had a majority of under 4,000 over the Conservatives last time. Mr Williams, an ex-farmer, is a former chairman of Brecon Beacons National Park. He is a Lib Dem whip.	Liberal Democrats	1/5	+648
		Conservatives	3/1
		Labour	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1
		Loony	500/1

Seat Winner - Bridgend

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This mid-Glamorgan seat, mainly urban and prosperous in parts, briefly had a Conservative MP in the 1980s but Labour have now held it for more than 20 years. The sitting MP, since 2005, Madeleine Moon, a former Mayor of Porthcawl, received a high public profile after the series of suicides of young people in her constituency. She agreed with South Wales Police that the suicides were not connected, and she criticised the media coverage. Ms Moon has also mounted a campaign to protect the moth population. She had a majority of 6,523, last time.	Labour	2/5	+648
		Conservatives	3/1
		Liberal Democrats	5/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Caerphilly

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a Labour stronghold, with Plaid Cymru usually the runners up, although well behind Labour. The constituency comprises remote ex-mining valleys north of Cardiff. The sitting MP former teacher Wayne David, a junior Welsh Office Minister, won a majority of more than 15,000 last time. He is also a noted Welsh historian.	Labour	1/50	+648
		Plaid Cymru	10/1
		Conservatives	50/1
		Liberal Democrats	50/1
		UKIP	100/1
		BNP	100/1

Seat Winner - Cardiff West

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a traditionally safe Labour seat which used to return George Thomas, the former Commons Speaker. Only once, in 1983 – a disastrous electoral year for Labour – did it return a Conservative MP, the colourful Ukrainian Stefan Terlezki. It includes a dockland area and huge council estates. The sitting MP Kevin Brennan, a former teacher, is a junior minister for children. He secured a majority of more than 8,000 at the last election.	Labour	1/3	+648
		Conservatives	2/1
		Liberal Democrats	25/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Cardiff Central

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a three-way marginal, having been held successively by the three main political parties since its creation in 1983. The Liberal Democrats gained it in 2005 after 13 years of Labour representation. The constituency comprises both affluent and deprived areas and a large student population. It was probably student opposition to Government plans to reform their support which cost Labour the seat last time. In 2005, Jenny Willott became the first woman and the first Liberal Democrat to hold this seat. She is backed by a majority of more than 5,500 over Labour.	Liberal Democrats	1/100	+648
		Labour	10/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Green	100/1
		TUSC	100/1
		John Mathias	100/1
		Loony	500/1

Seat Winner - Cardiff North

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This now highly marginal seat comprises the residential quarter of the Welsh capital and used to be regarded as reasonably safe Tory territory. But Labour wrested it from them in 1997 and have held it ever since. However the Conservatives will be hoping to regain it this time, as Labour enter the battle with a highly vulnerable majority of 1,100. The sitting MP is Julie Morgan, a former social worker, who is regarded as a stalwart of the South Wales Labour establishment. She is married to Rhodri Morgan, former First Minister of Wales.	Conservatives	2/11	+648
		Labour	7/2
		Liberal Democrats	16/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1

Seat Winner - Cardiff Sth & Penarth

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This docklands constituency is a staunchly Labour seat which was held – under slightly different boundaries – by former Prime Minister James Callaghan from 1945 to his retirement 42 years later. Now it is held by the Labour veteran and former journalist Alun Michael. In recent years the Liberal Democrats have increased their vote and are now vying with the Conservatives for second place. Labour go into the election with a majority of about 9,000.	Labour	4/11	+648
		Conservatives	11/4
		Liberal Democrats	5/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		George Burke	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1
		Communist Party	200/1

Seat Winner - |Carmarthen Est & Dinefw

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This large, Welsh-speaking rural seat in south-west Wales has been held by Plaid Cymru since 2001, when they wrested it from Labour. The sitting MP Adam Price is not contesting this election, but his party will be defending a majority of more than 6,500. Previous MPs for Carmarthen included Lady Megan Lloyd George, daughter of the First World War Premier, and the first Plaid Cymru MP, Gwynfor Evans.	Plaid Cymru	1/100	+648
		Labour	16/1
		Conservatives	66/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

SW-Carmarthen Wst & Sth Pembrokshire

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting The Conservatives will be hoping to capture this highly marginal seat from Labour at the election. The Tory vote has been increasing over the years and in 2005 Labour scraped home with a majority of under 2,000 over the Conservatives. The constituency is part urban (Carmarthen) and part rural (Pembrokeshire). It includes Dylan Thomas\'s homestead of Laugharne. The sitting MP Sheffield-born Nick Ainger, a former dock worker, entered Parliament in 1992.	Conservatives	1/5	+648
		Labour	10/3
		Liberal Democrats	50/1
		Plaid Cymru	25/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Henry Langen	100/1

Seat Winner - Ceredigion

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This rural, Welsh-speaking Cardiganshire seat, created in 1536 when Henry VIII incorporated Wales within England, is that rare thing: a marginal as between the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru. Other than a 12-vote by-election win in 1855, the Conservatives have never won this seat. The Liberal Democrat Mark Williams snatched the seat back from Plaid Cymru in 2005, but with a highly vulnerable majority of only 219. Williams, a former teacher, is the first non-Welsh speaker to hold this seat since the extension of the franchise in 1867.	Liberal Democrats	4/9	+648
		Plaid Cymru	13/8
		Conservatives	50/1
		Labour	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Clwyd South

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This scenic, rugged Welsh-speaking constituency in North Wales enjoys a reasonable Labour majority with no serious challenge from Plaid Cymru. It covers Llangollen, site of the international musical Eisteddfod. The sitting MP Martyn Jones, a microbiologist, has represented the area at Westminster since 1987. His campaign to save Welsh lager has culminated in a firm plan to resume production of this beer.	Labour	1/2	+648
		Conservatives	6/4
		Liberal Democrats	50/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		BNP	100/1

Seat Winner - Clwyd West

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a highly marginal North Wales seat which the Conservatives gained last time with a shoestring majority of only 133. It has tended to be a Tory-held seat, but Labour captured it in both 1997 and 2001, although the Conservatives managed to regain it in 2005. The sitting MP in this seaside constituency in the Colwyn Bay area, is Llandudno solicitor David Jones.	Conservatives	1/16	+648
		Labour	5/1
		Plaid Cymru	50/1
		Liberal Democrats	50/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Joe Blakesley	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1

Seat Winner - Cynon Valley

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This ex-mining constituency in South Wales, with its small valleys and high proportion of working class voters, is among the safest Labour seats in the country. At the last election, the doughty Ann Clwyd secured a majority of well over 13,000 over Plaid Cymru, with the Tories relegated to fourth place, claiming only 7.7% of the vote. Clwyd won the seat in 1983 and became the first woman to hold a Welsh valleys constituency. Before that she was a journalist and a Member of the European Parliament.	Labour	1/100	+648
		Plaid Cymru	12/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Delyn

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This coastal Flintshire constituency with a mixed economy, is now seen as a comfortably safe Labour seat, although it has been won by the Conservatives in their \"good\" years, 1983 and 1987. The current Labour MP David Hanson won it back from the Tories in 1992 and has held it ever since. His majority last time was over 6,500. Hanson had previously worked for charities and was described as a pressure group campaigner.	Labour	1/2	+648
		Conservatives	6/4
		Liberal Democrats	20/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		BNP	100/1

Seat Winner - Dwfor Meirionnydd

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a new constituency in North Wales bordered to the north by Arfon. It almost certainly favours Plaid Cymru. Experts calculated a notional majority of some nearly 9,000 for this party had this seat existed for the 2005 general election. The Tories have probably benefited from the boundary changes but the seat has been described as \"Plaid Cymru to a man\". The Plaid Cymru candidate is Elfyn Llwyd who sits for the disappearing seat of Meirionnydd Nant Conwy which, along with Caernarfon, helps to form the new constituency. Mr Llwyd is a lawyer who once played a part in a campaign to impeach Tony Blair over Iraq.	Plaid Cymru	1/100	+648
		Labour	25/1
		Liberal Democrats	33/1
		Conservatives	50/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Louise Hughes	100/1

Seat Winner - Gower

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This South Wales seat has elected only Labour MPs since 1906, among the longest runs of any constituency in the country. It is really a no-hoper for any party other than Labour, although Labour\'s recent majorities have not been \"mega\". At the last election, Labour triumphed with a majority of 6,703 over the Tories. The constituency comprises the old fishing village and seaside resort of Mumbles, and includes the first Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty in Britain. To the north, the constituency has a rich industrial history, grounded in coal and steel. The sitting MP Martin Caton entered Parliament in 1997 and has held the seat ever since. He is an agriculture researcher.	Labour	4/7	+648
		Conservatives	11/8
		Liberal Democrats	10/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Adrian Jones	100/1

Seat Winner - Islwyn

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This south Wales constituency, historically known for coal-mining, is an utterly safe Labour seat with no other party ever able to get anywhere near a serious challenge to them. It was formerly held by the ex-Labour leader Neil Kinnock, before he went to Europe. At the last election, Labour registered a majority of 15,740 over Plaid Cymru who, in second place, were just a whisker ahead of the Liberal Democrats. The sitting Labour MP Don Touhig, a former journalist, is one of Gordon Brown\'s closest political allies. Since the closure of the last pit in this constituency in 1989, Islwyn has been successful in gaining Government support in attracting new industries.	Labour	1/200	+648
		Plaid Cymru	16/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		David Rees	100/1
		Paul Taylor	100/1

Seat Winner - Llanelli

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a safe Labour seat in South Wales, a proud centre of Rugby football where the principal challengers are Plaid Cymru, although Labour at the moment enjoys a comfortable majority of 7,234. The sitting MP, who entered Parliament at the last general election, is a former teacher and schools\' inspector, Nia Griffith, a one-time sheriff of Carmarthen, who speaks five languages, English, Welsh, Italian, Spanish and French. She served as Parliamentary Private Secretary to Harriet Harman, Leader of the Commons and deputy leader of the Labour Party.	Labour	1/2	+648
		Plaid Cymru	6/4
		Conservatives	50/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Merthr Tydfil

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a rock-solid Labour stronghold in Wales, running from the Brecon Beacons National Park through the valleys, with Merthyr as its biggest town. It is plainly a no-hoper for any party other than Labour. At the last general election, Labour registered a majority of almost 14,000 over the Liberal Democrats. The sitting Labour MP Dai Havard, a one-time union official, has held the seat since 2001.	Labour	1/100	+648
		Liberal Democrats	12/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Socialist Labour Party	100/1
		Clive Tovey	100/1

Seat Winner - Monmouth

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This rural constituency, which covers the border valleys between England and Wales, has changed hands between Labour and Conservative several times in recent elections. It is now held by the Tories, but with a majority of around 4,500, which makes it possibly winnable by Labour again. However, in the current political climate, it seems likely to remain in Conservative hands. The sitting Conservative MP is David Davies – not to be confused with the former shadow Home Secretary David Davis – who is a prominent supporter of the Better Off Out movement which campaigns for Britain to leave the European Union.	Conservatives	1/100	+648
		Labour	16/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Montgomeryshire

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This Welsh seat is one of the most rural and isolated constituencies in the United Kingdom. It is one of the small handful of seats which the Liberal Democrats can call safe. Apart from the 1979 general election, when the Tories captured the seat, Montgomeryshire has returned a Liberal affiliated or Liberal Democrat candidate on every occasion since 1880. The Liberal Democrat majority at the last election was 7,100 over the Conservatives. The current MP, Lembit Opik, who is of Estonian descent although he was born in Northern Ireland, is one of the most colourful characters at Westminster. He has enjoyed massive publicity over his celebrity girl friends – and worries that the Earth will be hit by an asteroid.	Liberal Democrats	1/25	+648
		Conservatives	8/1
		Labour	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Bruce Lawson	100/1
		NF	200/1

Seat Winner - Neath

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This constituency is a mixture of both industrial and rural communities, running in a north-south strip along the dips, ridges and folded landscape of South Wales. It includes most of the Neath and Dulais valleys, and some of the Upper Swansea Valley as well. The constituency was heavily mined and the small communities that grew up around these mines were devastated by the collapse of the mining industry in the 1980s. It is an impregnable Labour stronghold. The party recorded a majority approaching 13,000 over Plaid Cymru at the last election. The sitting MP is former anti-apartheid campaigner Peter Hain, who won it in 1992 and has been its MP ever since. He is the Welsh Secretary.	Labour	1/10	+648
		Plaid Cymru	5/1
		Liberal Democrats	50/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Newport East

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting Labour have held this South Wales seat since it was first created in 1983. At the moment Labour have a majority of nearly 7,000 over the Liberal Democrats with the Conservatives only a whisker behind the Lib Dems in third place. Newport is the \"first\" town in Wales coming in from the M4 and this constituency includes the closing Llanwern steelworks. The sitting MP is Jessica Morden, a former general secretary of the Welsh Labour Party. She entered Parliament in 2005, becoming the first female MP ever to represent this part of the world.	Labour	1/2	+648
		Liberal Democrats	2/1
		Conservatives	8/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Newport West

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting	Labour	8/11	+648
		Conservatives	11/10
		Liberal Democrats	20/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Ogmore

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a rock-solid Labour seat in South Wales. At the last election, the party romped home with a majority of approaching 14,000 over the Liberal Democrats. But the Lib Dems, the Tories and Plaid Cymru each polled around the 3,000-4,000 mark. The constituency comprises former mining valleys west of Cardiff. The sitting MP Huw Irranca-Davies entered Parliament at a by-election in 2002. He is a former lecturer at Swansea Institute for Higher Education.	Labour	1/500	+648
		Liberal Democrats	33/1
		Conservatives	33/1
		Plaid Cymru	33/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Pontypridd

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This rock-solid Labour constituency comprises the Taff and Ely valleys north west of Cardiff. The southern area contains much new residential and light industrial development, and benefits from good transport links. This section has a growing population and is an important dormitory for Cardiff. The southern parts consist of large sections of 19th century housing and suffered high unemployment in the 1980s as the old industries closed. However economic recovery has been firm. Labour held the seat at the last election with a majority of over 13,000. The sitting MP Kim Howells, who entered Parliament in 1989, is an outspoken left-winger and former National Union of Mineworkers official. He is standing down at this election.	Labour	1/200	+648
		Liberal Democrats	14/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Socialist Labour Party	100/1
		Christian Party	100/1

Seat Winner - Preseli Pembrokeshire

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is the most westerly constituency in Wales. Much of the coastal area is in the Pembrokeshire Coast National Park. The main towns are Haverfordwest, the ports of Milford Haven and Fishguard and Britain’s smallest city, St David\'s. The main industries are tourism and farming. It is a critical marginal seat held, at the moment, by the Conservatives with a majority of just over 600 over Labour. So a bitter fight can be expected. The sitting Conservative MP Rugby-playing Stephen Crabb wrested the seat from Labour in 2005.	Conservatives	1/16	+648
		Labour	6/1
		Plaid Cymru	50/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		UKIP	100/1

Seat Winner - Rhondda

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting Since 1974, when it was recreated, this constituency has always had a large Labour majority, and in the 1987 general election it was the safest seat for any party, anywhere in the UK. In 2001, it was the only seat in the country where Liberal Democrats lost their deposit, as did the Conservative Party in their worst performance outside Northern Ireland. At the last election, Labour secured a majority of more than 16,000 over Plaid Cymru, and the Tories could not muster even 2,000 votes. Rhondda is the most famous Welsh valley of them all, with its ex-mining communities, chapels and choirs. The sitting Labour MP is Chris Bryant, a former priest and a one-time member of the Conservative Party. He is openly gay.	Labour	1/100	+648
		Plaid Cymru	14/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Philip Howe	100/1

Seat Winner - Swansea East

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is an ultra-safe urban seat in South Wales. At the last election, Labour stormed home with a majority of more than 11,200 over the Liberal Democrats with the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru barely in sight. The seat comprises docks and factories to the east and north of Wales\'s second city. The sitting MP Sian James, who entered Parliament in 2005, was encouraged to undertake a political career after her active involvement in the 1984 miners\' strike. She is a former director of Welsh Women\'s Aid.	Labour	1/100	+648
		Liberal Democrats	10/1
		Conservatives	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Clive Bennett	100/1

Seat Winner - Swansea West

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is another safe Labour seat, although the party\'s majority dropped to below 4,300 at the last election from 9,500 in 2001. The seat comprises middle-class Swansea around the university and redeveloped docks. Alan Williams has represented the seat for the Labour Party since the 1964 general election; since 2005 he has been the \'Father of the House\' - the senior MP with the longest unbroken service. Williams will not contest the next general election, thus ending a parliamentary career of over 40 years.	Liberal Democrats	4/6	+648
		Labour	11/10
		Conservatives	14/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		Green	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		TUSC	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Ian McCloy	100/1

Seat Winner - Torfaen

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a Labour Party stronghold. The area covers the new town of Cwmbran, Pontypool and its surrounding districts east of the Welsh valleys, and stretches as far north as Blaenavon. In 2005, Labour retained the seat with a majority exceeding 14,700 over the Conservatives. The current MP, Paul Murphy, has represented this seat since 1987. He has twice served as Secretary of State for Wales and before that was Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.	Labour	1/100	+648
		Liberal Democrats	20/1
		Conservatives	33/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Green	100/1
		Fred Wildgust	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		Richard Turner-Thomas	100/1

Seat Winner - Vale of Glamorgan

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a marginal seat to the west of Cardiff, containing the Labour-voting port of Barry, and Cardiff airport, surrounded by Conservative villages and small towns. At the moment it is held by Labour, but with a majority of under 2,000 over the Conservatives, so a bitter battle can be expected. The boundary changes might very marginally favour the Conservatives. The sitting MP John Smith, a former university tutor, won the seat at a by-election in 1989, lost it in 1992 by the narrowest of margins - 19 votes - but regained it in 1997. He is not contesting this election.	Conservatives	1/16	+648
		Labour	6/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Green	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1

Seat WInner - Vale of Clwyd

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This seat in North Wales is in Labour hands, but the 2005 majority of 4.700 over the Conservatives means it could easily swing to the Tories this time. The constituency includes the towns of Rhyl, Prestatyn, Denbigh and St. Asaph, which, despite its size, qualifies to be called a city because it has a cathedral - the smallest in Britain. The sitting Labour MP Chris Ruane is a former deputy head teacher. He entered Parliament in 1997.	Conservatives	8/13	+648
		Labour	6/5
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		Plaid Cymru	100/1
		BNP	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Alliance for Green Socialism	100/1

Seat Winner - Wrexham

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This is a safe Labour seat in this former mining town in north-east Wales. At the last general election the party retained the seat with a majority of nearly 7. 7,000 over the Liberal Democrats, with the Tories hot on the Lib Dem heels for second place. The sitting MP lawyer Ian Lucas represented Trevor Rees-Jones, who was Princess Diana\'s bodyguard and a survivor of the crash which killed her, in a legal battle with Mohamed al-Fayed. Mr Lucas has been an MP since 2001.	Labour	4/7	+648
		Liberal Democrats	7/4
		Conservatives	8/1
		Plaid Cymru	50/1
		UKIP	100/1
		BNP	100/1

Seat Winner - Ynys Mon

Time	Event	Selection	Odds	More
06 May. 17:00	Next General Election Constituency Betting This constituency – Ynys Mon is the Welsh name for Anglesey – is a critical marginal between Labour and Plaid Cymru. At the last general election, Labour scraped home with a majority of 1,242 over Plaid, so a tough battle is to be expected again this time. This partly Welsh-speaking constituency also includes the famous ferry port of Holyhead plus the smaller Holy Island. The current MP, Anglesey-born Albert Owen, is a former merchant seaman.	Plaid Cymru	1/4	+648
		Labour	11/4
		Peter Rogers	16/1
		Conservatives	25/1
		Liberal Democrats	100/1
		UKIP	100/1
		Christian Party	200/1

Dyma'r diweddaraf o Ladbrokes. Yr hyn sy'n ddiddorol efallai ydi cymharu ffigyrau'r bwci efo'r rhai cyntaf i mi eu pastio a'u copio yn ol ym Mis Chwefror. Fel y byddai dyn yn disgwyl mae prisiau wedi tueddu i dynhau ar y Lib Dems, ond symud y ffordd arall efo'r pleidiau eraill yn y lleoedd hynny lle mae gobaith gan y Lib Dems.

Er enghraifft ym Mis Chwefror gallech gael 25/1 ar y Lib Dems yn Aberconwy - erbyn heddiw mae'n 6/1 - tu ol i'r Toriaid a Phlaid Cymru o hyd, ond mae'n symudiad sylweddol. Mae'r farchnad yn barnu bod buddugoliaeth i Lafur (o 8/1 i 10/1), Plaid Cymru (o 3/1 i 4/1) a'r Toriaid (o 1/3 i 4/9) yn llai tebygol nag oedd ym Mis Chwefror - ond mae'r symudiadau yn llawer llai o lawer na'r un at y Lib Dems.

Mae'r symudiad tuag at y Lib Dems yn llawer, llawer llai yng Ngheredigion - o 5/6 ym mis Chwefror i 4/9 heddiw - ac mae'r symudiad oddi wrth y Blaid hefyd yn gymharol fach (o 5/6 i 13/8). Mae'r farchnad felly'n barnu bod cryn ansicrwydd yn yr etholaeth honno.

Mewn llefydd lle nad ydi'r Lib Dems yn gryf, cymharol ychydig ydi'r newidiadau wedi bod. Roedd y farchnad o'r farn bod Llanelli yn dyn ym mis Chwefror (1/2 i Lafur, 6/4 i'r Blaid) a 'dydi'r prisiau heb symud modfedd ers hynny.

Mae'r ddwy sedd sydd yn nwylo'r Blaid yn cael eu ystyried yn gwbl ddiogel o hyd (1/100 yn y ddau achos) ac mae'r Blaid yn parhau yn ffefrynau clir yn Arfon (1/10) a lled glir yn Ynys Mon (1/4).

Yn ol y farchnad mae'r Lib Dems bellach ar y blaen yng Ngorllewin Abertawe ac yn agos iawn yn Nwyrain Casnewydd. Mae nhw hefyd yn glir ar y blaen yn Nhrefaldwyn a Brycheiniog a Maesyfed - roedd pethau'n agos ym Mis Chwefror.

Os ydi'r prisiau'n gywir bydd Llafur hefyd yn colli Gogledd Caerdydd, Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro, Bro Morgannwg a Dyffryn Clwyd. Byddant hefyd yn agos neu'n agos iawn i golli Alyn a Glannau Dyfrdwy, Pen y Bont, De Clwyd, Delyn, Gwyr, Gorllewin Casnewydd a Wrecsam. Mae'n bosibl y bydd cryn dipyn o waed ar y carped erbyn bore dydd Gwener.

Un nodyn bach arall - mae prisiau'r Blaid yn 100/1 o hyd yng Ngorllewin Caerdydd - yn union fel etholaethau eraill Caerdydd. 'Rwan mae'n dalcen caled i'r Blaid ennill yma mewn etholiad cyffredinol (ond mae etholiad Cynulliad yn fater tra gwahanol). Ond mae'n rhaid bod gobeithion y Blaid yma'n uwch nag yw yn etholaethau eraill Caerdydd (sydd hefyd yn 100/1) - yma mae eu saith cynghorydd ar gyngor y ddinas - cawsant fwy o bleidleisiau na nab arall yn yr etholaeth yn yr etholiadau lleol. Mae yna nifer fawr o bosteri i fyny yn rhannau gorllewinol yr etholaeth. Ydi hi'n bosibl go iawn mai'r un cyfle sydd gan y Blaid yma nag UKIP a'r Blaid Werdd?