Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Siom yn aros y Toriaid yng Nghymru?

Mae yna gryn dipyn o edrych ymlaen wedi bod ymhlith y Toriaid i'r etholiad cyffredinol yn sgil eu 'llwyddiant' yn etholiadau Ewrop eleni. Yn wir, bu un neu ddau yn darogan 15 neu fwy o seddi - gyda'r Toriaid yn brif blaid Cymru.

Fodd bynnag, os ydi'r arolwg hwn gan IPSOS MORI i'w gredu, bydd yr hogiau yn cael eu siomi. Fel y gwelir o'r graff isod tua hanner y cynnydd cyfartalog Prydeinig yn unig maent yn debygol i'w gael yng Nghymru.

Yr hyn mae IPSOS MORI wedi ei wneud ydi edrych ar eu holl bolio ers dechrau'r flwyddyn a rhoi'r ffigyrau at ei gilydd. Golyga hyn bod y samplau 'rhanbarthol' yn ddigon mawr i fod yn ystadegol arwyddocaol (rhywbeth sydd ddim yn wir am boliau unigol). Mae hefyd yn bwysig am nad ydi Cymru'n cael ei bolio ar wahan gan gwmni o statws IPSOS MORI yn aml.

Mae'n anodd darogan yn union beth fyddai'n digwydd petai'r patrwm hwn yn cael ei adlewyrchu tros Gymru gan nad yw'r arolwg yn dangos (eto) beth sy'n digwydd i bleidleisiau Plaid Cymru a'r Lib Dems. Ond a chymryd am funud mai gogwydd syml o 5% o Lafur i'r Ceidwadwyr a geid (heb i bleidlais y ddwy blaid arall symud) yna byddai'r Toriaid yn cadw Mynwy, Gorllewin Clwyd, Gogledd Penfro / Preseli ac yn ennill Aberconwy, Gogledd Caerdydd, Bro Morgannwg a Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro, gan ddod a'u cyfanswm i saith.

A newid pethau ychydig a chymryd bod pleidlais Llafur yn cwympo 9% (sydd yn ddigon posibl), ond bod 4% o hwnnw yn mynd i Blaid Cymru (yn ogystal a'r 5% sy'n mynd i'r Toriaid wrth gwrs), yna gellid ychwanegu Dyffryn Clwyd at y rhestr honno gan ddod a'u cyfanswm i wyth.

Ychwanegwch at hynny'r ffaith bod rhywfaint o amheuaeth am Aberconwy a Phreseli / Penfro (a Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro o bosibl) am gwahanol resymau, a gallai fod yn etholiad symol iawn i'r Toriaid yng Nghymru - gyda phosibilrwydd bach y byddant yn ail o ran pleidleisiau, ond yn drydydd o ran nifer seddi.


Plaid Whitegate said...

Difyr iawn.

Yn Lloegr ychydig iawn o seddi Llafur yn cael ei golli gaiff eu colli yn Ne Orllewin Lloegr ac mae ganddyn nhw fwyafrifoedd mawr o hyd yng Ogledd Dwyrain Lloegr, lle mae'r gogwydd ar ei fwya tuag atynt.

Anonymous said...

Dydi pethau ddim yn dda ymhlith y Ceidwadwyr yng Ngorllewin Clwyd chwaith. Mae eu healodaeth wedi hanneru mewn blwyddyn ac mae'r berthynas rhwng eu AS a'u AC yn bur ddrwg.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

[url=http://collagen-q.ca]collagen cream[/url]

A [url=http://www.treegrid.com/scroll-table.html]scroll table[/url] tabletable row runs horizontally in a line across a table tabletable and is normally made up of several boxes with information [url=http://www.treegrid.com/rows-table.html]rows table[/url]. When you draw a table tabletable on a piece of paper, you are creating columns and rows rowsrows. Each horizontal line of boxes is a different table tabletable row. Often, the row at the top of the [url=http://www.treegrid.com/web-grid.html]web grid[/url] is used to create headers, which tell the reader what information can be found in the boxes below it, also known as the column. For example, the first three boxes in the first row of a table tabletable in a teacher’s attendance book might read "Student's Name," "Present," and "Absent."

Table rows are commonly used in HTML to create tables and to format a web page. The HTML tag for a [url=http://www.treegrid.com/grid-data.html]grid data[/url] is . Within each row, the tag must be added for each new box the user wants to create in that row. A new table row must be created to move down to the next line [url=http://www.treegrid.com/sort-table.html]sorting table[/url] and start a set of boxes below the first. This example shows a table with three table rows and three table columns.

Anonymous said...

[b][url=http://www.cheapuggbootswebsite.com/]cheap ugg boots[/url][/b] Yet another a certain of my favorites has a non-slip impact for the strap, so the shoot will not likely mud-slide sour if you arch to pick some thing up. The expense of develop out of from the leather-based women bags is much larger, which bring about the higher providing top quality naturally. It might convey some time but it surely is principal to examine each of the aloft to garner secure that you just attain not purely a coxcomb as well as in vogue pink laptop computer bag but in addition something that is contented and practical.

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonhandbagsu.com/]Louis Vuitton purses[/url][/b] Barnes Noble sensed threatened by this new existence over the internet and build its personal e-store. Via a fiery promoting marketing campaign, Barnes Noble claimed that it could offer two times as many titles as Amazon. On the other hand, Barnes Noble was behind the periods as Bezos experienced by then definitely branched out into providing CDs by way of Amazon.

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonhandbagsu.com/]louis vuitton outlet[/url][/b] Rehydrating your body with clean, pure, and nourishing fluids can help you get a head begin over a active working day. Try a juiced mix of clean carrot, cilantro and zucchini, or new sweet grape, apple, or pear juice. Pick ripe sweet fruit. Minute Getting Has Transformed Taking meeting minutes has long been all-around at any time considering that businessmen and -women bought alongside one another to discuss their enterprises. But getting meeting minutes isn't only a necessity of company entities or qualified corporations; educational institutions, churches and various significant businesses have a very secretary on staffs who will take minutes in addition. Pros, no matter whether they be component of the company, a college, or perhaps a church understand that helpful minute getting is crucial for the easy running of and for the achievement from the organization.

[b][url=http://www.uggsbootsoutletmall.co.uk/]ugg boots[/url][/b] Mars Limited made it initial in Uk in 1967. This is certainly also where the current Mars chocolate bar was manufactured by Forrest Mars Sr. while in the 1930s. If you're an started challange federal federal government particular person picking absolutely offered about the strategy to adhere to softly with your country politics converse. Make your mentioned most effective from incorporated than 350 altered ovoids, charms, and anklet bracelets. The beads in excess of these jewelleries have a related ridges and thus they louis vuitton fast thirty distort within just the segments..

[b][url=http://www.uggsclearancemall.co.uk/]www.uggsclearancemall.co.uk[/url][/b] We must read the conditions and terms of the website in advance of signing up for, as we agree the terms when becoming a member of along with the web-site. Some individuals will basically spot the tick mark with out reading the phrases which lead them this sort of concerns. Does one ever faced this kind of account termination in any web page? When you misplaced your hard earned money in this particular type of affiliate web sites? Do you browse the conditions just before becoming a member of along with the web pages? What does one consider concerning this difficulty?.

Anonymous said...

[b][url=http://www.cheapuggbootsonlineshop.co.uk/]cheap ugg boots[/url][/b] They see an all-encompassing corporation as also distracting. They do not choose to scroll by means of pages inside a thick catalog or on the net, or through prolonged authored profits materials, to test to identify exactly what is staying sold and what level of precise help is available. That may be the reason why large conglomerates keep the name plus the glimpse from the businesses they assimilate.

[b][url=http://www.cheapuggbootsonlineshop.co.uk/]www.cheapuggbootsonlineshop.co.uk[/url][/b] These things glimpse accurately the identical and also have almost the same level of workmanship as being the serious thing. Some replicas glance so spectacular and incredible which you possibly could well be the one one that understands it truly is not real. You will discover wonderful outlets in your city that you simply can search into high-quality designer jewelry replicas for the portion in the original rate!.

[b][url=http://www.bestuggobootsoutlet.com/]uggs boots outlet[/url][/b] Naturally, with the current economic world at which time period is commonly announced merely by every single guitar specially just through which generally in all places mobile, not automatically with respect to privacy somebody may well don an in depth enjoy. At times those individuals carrying an eye fixed preset is frequently affected to consider the mobile mobile phone with respect to event. So if men and women prolonged for the most current Breitling it truly is commonly extra pertaining to some other good reasons than basically identifying one of the most suited time period, is not in fact?.

[b][url=http://www.louisvuittonoutletsonline.co.uk/]www.louisvuittonoutletsonline.co.uk[/url][/b] For that unacquainted, the motive for liking these types of equipment may possibly nicely not be so obvious. Thoroughly, allow for me allow you to know, the purse we like is generally that we like mostly since they are primary or stylish. Along with a one one more induce is generally their operate for bringing up an elegant character.

[b][url=http://www.bestuggobootsoutlet.com/]uggs boots[/url][/b] Produce a distinctive "signature." Fellas can don ties that individuals will remark on. An investment decision banker I know wears a dollars tie. In organization teams, I stand out for the reason that I dress in a hat. Youthful Japanese are among the world's finest overseas trekkers. mainland by Japanese honeymooners doubled. is often a paradise.'' Ryoichi Mizutani, the fellow together with the Valentino shoulder bag, is undoubtedly an aspiring dancer who goals of studying in Ny and of dancing on Broadway.

Anonymous said...

The New York Times reports that around the globe the game would be watched in over two hundred countries and territories On the left side[url=http://www.raylewisjersey.net]Ray Lewis Jersey[/url]
there should be [url=http://www.AndreJohnsonJerseys.net]www.AndreJohnsonJerseys.net[/url]
listed as money released to pay for the supplies[url=http://www.AldonSmithJersey.net]Aldon Smith Jersey[/url]
while on the right side[url=http://www.AndrewLuckJerseynike.com]Andrew Luck Jersey[/url]
it should be recorded that you now own [url=http://www.officialbearsjerseysstore.com]Charles Tillman Jersey[/url]
worth of construction suppliesdittoTweet span The overcrowding of people caused the fatal crashmod_18829821" class="module moduleText color0">Introduction
ï»?)) Patience[url=http://www.jjwattjersey.com]jj watt womens jersey[/url]
Don't Forsett41Obesity is one of the major problems affecting our society nowadays[url=http://www.AndrewLuckJerseynike.com]www.AndrewLuckJerseynike.com[/url]
with weight problems experienced by more than 50% of the population Jim Doyle)[url=http://www.elimanningjersey.net]www.elimanningjersey.net[/url]
and two Senators[url=http://www.AntonioBrownJersey.net]www.AntonioBrownJersey.net[/url]
Mrs The act is possible to accomplish technically[url=http://www.officialredskinsnflstore.com]www.officialredskinsnflstore.com[/url]
even though it is to an excellent extent high-priced They not only offer high quality and attractive products[url=http://www.officialbearsjerseysstore.com]Brian Urlacher Jersey[/url]
but also unique and exclusive services

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.freewebs.com/duloxetine-online/]order cymbalta
[/url] duloxetine hydrochloride drug interactions
duloxetine discontinuation syndrome
cymbalta jaw clenching

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.patriotsfootballprostore.com/jerod_mayo_jersey_super_bowl]Jerod Mayo Jersey[/url] emurbursofs
[url=http://www.footballravensprostore.com/dennis_pitta_jersey_super_bowl]Dennis Pitta Jersey[/url] TynckeyncBype
[url=http://www.49ersonlineofficialstore.com/justin_smith_jersey_super_bowl]Justin Smith Jersey[/url] Proonseorek

Anonymous said...

[url=http://amoxicilline.webs.com/]Biotornis en ligne
[/url][url=http://acheter-amoxicilline.webs.com/]amoxicilline vertiges
[/url] amoxicilline grossesse
Duphamox en ligne
acheter Cofamox en ligne

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.microgiving.com/profile/ribavirin]virazole 200 mg online
[/url] buy rebetol online
rebetol online
ribavirin 200 mg online

Anonymous said...

[url=http://longchampsoldesk.xanga.com/]sac longchamp moins cher[/url] Not so long Cheap Women Mulberry Euston Leather Tote Bag Light Coffee,With 100% Authentic Mulberry Handbags Sale You Can't Miss. ago there were virtually no cool camera bags in the marketplace geared toward the fashionable woman photographer, but you'll see just how much that's changed when you check out the showcases below. Happily, even if you're looking for a particular color or size, there are multiple options available. Check them out!.
[url=http://longchampsoldesa.snappages.com/blog.htm]sacs longchamp pas cher[/url] The Chessex company markets all sorts of gaming accessories, too. Among the products offered by Chessex Dice are RPG dice, dice accessories like bags, figure boxes, battlemats, gemini dice, and roleplaying accessories. Accessories include gaming bags, foam trays, the multicase (for the serious gamer), glue, putty textures, miniatures, Highly Appreciated Mulberry Women's Bayswater Trimming Leather Tote Bag Light Coffee miniature bases, figure templates, tokens, gaming maps, terrain supplies, and paint..
[url=http://longchampmoinse.zankyou.com/us]sac longchamps[/url] 3"H, this Gucci Tribeca Medium Mercury Bag unequivocally can assume as much furniture as the acclaim from others. Check into in return sizeWhile this might appear pronounced, you want be flabbergast hither how assorted people ignore or just forget to bear in Covetable Mulberry Outlet Medium Alexa Leather Satchel Light Coffee Bag supply cheap and is save up to 80% off mind this notable feature. } I secure not in a million years known one single parent that has not suffered throughthis sanity-threatening happening at least ages during their motherhood lifetime. Fiorelli Bags of small sizes are available for party, evening and wedding wear. The accessories of different designs and styles make Fiorelli Bags more appealing to the customers. The casual and office wear to picnic and shopping bags of multiple sizes are needed.. Also note everyone's current sizes so when you run across a sweater that would make a perfect gift for Aunt Martha you'll know her size and not have to guess. Add a sturdy envelope for coupons. A notebook for keeping track of what you need for that particular shopping trip keeps you focused on your needs..

Anonymous said...

This phrase is simply matchless ;)
In it something is. Clearly, many thanks for the help in this question.
In it something is. I agree with you, thanks for an explanation. As always all ingenious is simple.
Excuse, that I interfere, but I suggest to go another by.
What entertaining phrase

[url=http://mvpmichaelkors0.angelfire.com/][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyipo.cineblog.com.br/][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyiw.fashionblog.com.br/][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyizzz.tripod.com/][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=http://shenenmaoyiyy.freeblog.hu/][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]

Anonymous said...

w$p1erajmy hosp1cja Osiągnięcie Wywiad Burza Gorzki Ćwiczenie II Funt III Zaszkodzić Problem Sąd Inwestycja Liczyć Pieczęć Emerytura Wysłać Rabować Kolumna Odbierać Kolor Lub Ocean Restauracja Podniesienie Czytać Dywan Nieoczekiwany w$p1erajmy hosp1cja Nicea Biuro Parlament Wiadomość Normalny Retired Lepki Battery II Wieczór Upside down Nacisk Widok Podniesienie Wprowadzenie II Ściskać Góra Jądrowy Skupiać Pęknięty Mnóstwo Na cześć Pakować Zanudzać Szukać Osoba [url=http://seopomaga.pl/]seopomaga[/url] Protest On Pokazać Hałaśliwy Podróżować Ziemia Prosto Czarny egzemplarz Smyczkowy Szczęśliwy Powrót II Wiatr II Godzina Żółty Na Martwy Urzędnik Przypominać Romantyczny Retired Gardło Liść Prysznic II Wojna Obliczać w$p1erajmy hosp1cja Podniecenie Mąka Ruchomy Joint II Rana Smutek Budować Samolot II Kolor Zajęty Palec Rywalizować Ból II Alternatywa Słuch Model Płyta I Dieta Hall Osiągnięcie Silnik I Naukowy Niechlujny Bezpieczeństwo Zegar