Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Siom yn aros y Toriaid yng Nghymru?

Mae yna gryn dipyn o edrych ymlaen wedi bod ymhlith y Toriaid i'r etholiad cyffredinol yn sgil eu 'llwyddiant' yn etholiadau Ewrop eleni. Yn wir, bu un neu ddau yn darogan 15 neu fwy o seddi - gyda'r Toriaid yn brif blaid Cymru.

Fodd bynnag, os ydi'r arolwg hwn gan IPSOS MORI i'w gredu, bydd yr hogiau yn cael eu siomi. Fel y gwelir o'r graff isod tua hanner y cynnydd cyfartalog Prydeinig yn unig maent yn debygol i'w gael yng Nghymru.


Yr hyn mae IPSOS MORI wedi ei wneud ydi edrych ar eu holl bolio ers dechrau'r flwyddyn a rhoi'r ffigyrau at ei gilydd. Golyga hyn bod y samplau 'rhanbarthol' yn ddigon mawr i fod yn ystadegol arwyddocaol (rhywbeth sydd ddim yn wir am boliau unigol). Mae hefyd yn bwysig am nad ydi Cymru'n cael ei bolio ar wahan gan gwmni o statws IPSOS MORI yn aml.

Mae'n anodd darogan yn union beth fyddai'n digwydd petai'r patrwm hwn yn cael ei adlewyrchu tros Gymru gan nad yw'r arolwg yn dangos (eto) beth sy'n digwydd i bleidleisiau Plaid Cymru a'r Lib Dems. Ond a chymryd am funud mai gogwydd syml o 5% o Lafur i'r Ceidwadwyr a geid (heb i bleidlais y ddwy blaid arall symud) yna byddai'r Toriaid yn cadw Mynwy, Gorllewin Clwyd, Gogledd Penfro / Preseli ac yn ennill Aberconwy, Gogledd Caerdydd, Bro Morgannwg a Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro, gan ddod a'u cyfanswm i saith.

A newid pethau ychydig a chymryd bod pleidlais Llafur yn cwympo 9% (sydd yn ddigon posibl), ond bod 4% o hwnnw yn mynd i Blaid Cymru (yn ogystal a'r 5% sy'n mynd i'r Toriaid wrth gwrs), yna gellid ychwanegu Dyffryn Clwyd at y rhestr honno gan ddod a'u cyfanswm i wyth.

Ychwanegwch at hynny'r ffaith bod rhywfaint o amheuaeth am Aberconwy a Phreseli / Penfro (a Gorllewin Caerfyrddin / De Penfro o bosibl) am gwahanol resymau, a gallai fod yn etholiad symol iawn i'r Toriaid yng Nghymru - gyda phosibilrwydd bach y byddant yn ail o ran pleidleisiau, ond yn drydydd o ran nifer seddi.

14 comments:

Plaid Whitegate said...

Difyr iawn.

Yn Lloegr ychydig iawn o seddi Llafur yn cael ei golli gaiff eu colli yn Ne Orllewin Lloegr ac mae ganddyn nhw fwyafrifoedd mawr o hyd yng Ogledd Dwyrain Lloegr, lle mae'r gogwydd ar ei fwya tuag atynt.

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Dydi pethau ddim yn dda ymhlith y Ceidwadwyr yng Ngorllewin Clwyd chwaith. Mae eu healodaeth wedi hanneru mewn blwyddyn ac mae'r berthynas rhwng eu AS a'u AC yn bur ddrwg.

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