Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Pob lwc Vaughan!

Ymddengys bod Vaughan yn bwriadu 'sgwennu pwt i godi calonnau pob un o'r prif bleidiau Cymreig ar drothwy eu cynhadleddau. Chware teg iddo fo - mae'n braf deall bod ganddo galon feddal.

Ond beth goblyn mae am ei ddweud i godi calonnau y Lib Dems Cymreig? Yn ol un pol (YouGov) a gyhoeddwyd heddiw maent ar 13% tros Brydain ar hyn o bryd. Os ydi patrwm 2007 yn rhywbeth i fynd arno byddai hyn yn cyfieithu i rhwng 8% a 9 % yn yr etholaethau, a rhwng 6% a 7% ar y rhestr mewn etholiadau Cynulliad.

Mewn termau seddi byddai hyn yn debygol o olygu bod y Lib Dems yn colli sedd restr y Gogledd - gan o bosibl gael llai o bleidleisiau nag UKIP a'r BNP. Byddai rhanbarth y De Ddwyrain hefyd mewn perygl yn ogystal ag un Canol De Cymru. Byddai sedd De Orllewin Cymru yn debygol o gael ei chadw.

O ran yr etholaethau byddai Maldwyn yn debygol iawn o syrthio - er y gallai hynny sicrhau sedd restr o'r newydd. Mi fyddai yna berygl o golli Brycheiniog a Maesyfed a Chanol Caerdydd hefyd - er cymaint y mwyafrifoedd. Gallai'r blaid yn hawdd gael eu hunain efo tair - os nad dwy sedd Cynulliad yr amser yma'r flwyddyn nesaf.

Felly Vaughan - pob lwc - mae'n dda gen i mai dy orchwyl di ac nid fy un i ydi codi calonnau'r Lib dems.

9 comments:

Vaughan said...

Fe wnes i ddweud fy mod "yn crafu fy mhen ynghylch sut mae gwneud hynny mewn un achos". Fe wna i ffeindio ffordd! Rwy'n gallu bode yn greadigol iawn ar adegau!

menaiblog said...

Mi fyddi angen dy holl greadigrwydd mae gen i ofn.

Anonymous said...

Dwi'n meddwl y byddai'n ddoeth i Blaid Cymru (a phleidiau eraill) beidio clochdar gormod am drang honedig y LibDems.

Dydw i ddim yn LD fy hun, ond mae gan glochdar fel hyn dueddiad peryglus o droi nôl a brathu'r ceiliog sy'n canu.

Pwy a wyr na fydd y LD ar eu hennill mewn 3 mlynedd wrth i'r economi wella a phobl edrych am blaid sydd wedi bod yn ddigon dewr i wneud toriadau (gwnaeth Llafur tin-droi am flynyddoedd a Phlaid cadw ei phen yn y tywod). Efallai mai'r LD fydd ar eu hennill yn 2015 os nad yn 2011.

Anonymous said...

Un 'scenario' positif posib iawn yw fod y Lib Dems yn cael pleidlais isel ac yn colli seddi yn etholiad y Cynulliad ond nol mewn Llywodraeth mewn clymblaid gyda unai Llafur neu Plaid a'r Ceidwadwyr. Peth positif iawn i'r Lib Dems yw fod system bleidleisio a'r tirlun gwleidyddol yng Nghymru yn meddwl fyddant yn aml iawn gyda siawns uchel o fod mewn llywodraeth er gwaethaf pleidlais isel.

Anonymous said...

Un 'scenario' positif posib iawn yw fod y Lib Dems yn cael pleidlais isel ac yn colli seddi yn etholiad y Cynulliad ond nol mewn Llywodraeth mewn clymblaid gyda unai Llafur neu Plaid a'r Ceidwadwyr. Peth positif iawn i'r Lib Dems yw fod system bleidleisio a'r tirlun gwleidyddol yng Nghymru yn meddwl fyddant yn aml iawn gyda siawns uchel o fod mewn llywodraeth er gwaethaf pleidlais isel.

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