Cyn cychwyn hoffwn nodi fy mod yn ymwybodol fy mod i'n gwneud rhywbeth anwyddonol yma trwy dynnu allan un tabl o nifer, ond dyna 'dwi am ei wneud. Daw'r ffigyrau isod o ystadegau addysg y cynulliad am 2009. '
Dwi'n ymddiheuro am y blerwch, dydw i ddim yn ddigon o teci i drosglwyddo taenlenni yn dwt, ond dyna ni - mi geisiaf egluro - y bum golofn gyntaf sydd o ddiddordeb i ni. Mae'r gyntaf yn cyfeirio at flwyddyn ysgol, yr ail at y nifer o blant mewn ysgolion cynradd y wlad sy'n siarad Cymraeg adref (yn ol canfyddiad rhieni), y drydydd at hynny fel canran o'r cyfanswm, y bedwerydd at gyfanswm y plant sy'n siarad y Gymraeg yn rhugl ond nad ydynt yn ei siarad yn y cartref a'r bumed at hynny fel canran o'r cyfanswm. Ydych chi efo fi?
| 2002/03 17,609 8.2 12,246 5.7 53,387 24.8 127,526 59.2 4,772 2.2 215,540 29,855 13.9 2003/04 17,865 8.4 9,453 4.5 42,239 19.9 134,649 63.5 7,993 3.8 212,199 27,318 12.9 2004/05 16,866 8.1 8,898 4.3 45,274 21.6 130,518 62.3 7,778 3.7 209,334 25,764 12.3 2005/06 17,611 8.6 8,677 4.2 47,447 23.1 131,727 64.1 0 0.0 205,462 26,288 12.8 2006/07 15,332 7.6 10,151 5.0 48,438 23.9 128,357 63.5 0 0.0 202,278 25,483 12.59800868 2007/08 15,310 7.7 9,691 4.9 46,672 23.5 127,019 63.9 0 0.0 198,692 25,001 12.58279146 2008/09 14,657 7.5 10,077 5.2 45,270 23.3 124,325 64.0 0 0.0 194,329 24,734 12.72789959 |
Ac wele, mae'r ganran sy'n siarad yr iaith adref wedi syrthio o 8.2% yn 2002/03 i 7.5% yn 2008/09 - sy'n drist braidd, ond yn rhywbeth na all y system addysg wneud fawr ynglyn a fo. Ond edrychwch ar y golofn nesaf ond un - mae'r ganran sy'n siarad y Gymraeg yn rhugl, ond nad ydynt yn ei siarad adref wedi gostwng hefyd o 5.7% i 5.2% tros yr un cyfnod.
Yn y cyfamser mae'r ganran sy'n cael eu haddysgu trwy gyfrwng y Gymraeg yn y sector cynradd wedi cynyddu o 17.9% yn 2000/01 i 20.8% yn 2008/09. Felly mae'r ganran o blant sydd ddim yn siarad Cymraeg adref ond sy'n cael eu haddysgu trwy gyfrwng yr iaith ar hyn o bryd yn tua 13.3% - ac mae llai na 40% o'r rheiny yn siarad yr iaith yn rhugl. Rwan 'dwi'n gwybod o'r gorau nad ydi plant bach iawn o gefndiroedd Seisnig wedi cael cyfle i ddysgu'r iaith yn rhugl eto - ond roedd canran uwch o'r cynhenid ddi Gymraeg mewn ysgolion cynradd yn siarad yr iaith yn rhugl yn ol 2002/03 - ychydig yn is na 60% - mae'n anodd bod yn fanwl oherwydd bwlch yn ffigyrau'r Cynulliad.
Fel y soniais mae dethol un set o rifau o blith nifer, a rhai sy'n ddibynol ar ganfyddiad rhieni braidd yn amheus, a 'dwi hefyd yn sylweddoli bod problemau ynglyn a sut mae'r Cynulliad yn casglu a diweddaru y data arbennig yma. Ond mae'n rhaid bod y ffaith bod y ganran sy'n derbyn addysg Gymraeg yn cynyddu tra bod y ganran sy'n ei siarad yn rhugl (yn ol canfyddiad rhieni) yn gostwng yn destun gofid.
11 comments:
Problem fawr yw'r rhiant Cymraeg mewn cartref dwyieithog yn cyfaddawdu ac yn siarad dim ond Saesneg. Pobol gwan sy'n barod i ilidio'i personoliaeth. Felly mae'r aelwyd yn mynd o un dwyieithog i uniaith Saesneg. Wedi dweud hynny, mewn cartref dwyieithog, pam nad yw'r rhiant Saesneg yn dysgu'r Gymraeg?
Fel dwedest ti, mae un broblem fawr gyda'r ffigyrau. Ar ôl 2002/3, mae'r data yn nodi canfyddiad y rhieni. Cyn hynny, mae'r data yn nodi canfyddiad y prifathrawon (Tabl 7.4). Roedd gwelliant yn y ganran sy'n gallu siarad Cymraeg yn rhugl (ddim yn y cartref) o 6.0% ym 1987 i 10.5% yn 2001. A gostyngodd y ganran sy ddim yn gallu siarad Cymraeg o gwbl o 75.4% i 52.0%. Roedd pethau'n mynd yn dda.
Yn ystod y newid, roedd dryswch. Felly, yn fy marn i, dydy'r ffigurau rhwng 2003 a 2005 ddim yn rhy ddibynadwy. Ond hyd yn oed ar ôl hynny, dydy'r ffigyrau ddim yn ddefnyddiol iawn. Fel dwedais i yn y post hwn, dim ond 6.8% o rieni yn Sir Fynwy yn meddwl bod eu plant nhw yn ffaelu siarad yr iaith o gwbl, ond 35.4% yn Sir Gâr. Mae'n jôc. Mae'r safon yn rhy oddrychol.
Mae ffigyrau llawn, gan gynnwys bob Awdurdod Lleol, ar gael ar StatsWales. Gwnes i daenlen.
Diolch MH
Mi fyddwn i yn nodi dau beth arall:
1. Dydw i ddim yn gwbl siwr sut mae'r Cynulliad yn diweddaru'r data - maen nhw'n gofyn i rieni plant sy'n cychwyn mewn ysgol am sgiliau iaith eu plant - ond 'dwi ddim yn rhy siwr pryd maen nhw'n gofyn wedyn.
2. Mae yna broblem (ddamcaniaethol o leiaf) bosibl efo canfyddiad penaethiaid hefyd - sef bod pennaeth mewn ysgol Gymraeg yn y De dyweder am fod yn gyndyn i gyfaddef fod plentyn yn gadael yn bl 6 gyda safonau ieithyddol isel.
O brofiad mae gwahaniaeth mewn dehongliad athrawon o lefelau cwricwlwm cenedlaethol y gymraeg.
Gwahaniaeth dwi'n amau sy'n deillio o ble mae athrawon yn cymryd eu 'baseline'. hy os ydi y rhan fwyaf yn siarad cymraeg yn naturiol yn y dosbarth, mae unrhyw un sy'n siarad chydig yn wanach felly yn cael ei gyfri fel nad ydi'n rhugl - ar yr ochr arall os ydi'n wyrth bod y plant yn siarad cymraeg o gwbl wel, maent felly yn rhugl.
Roedd plant mewn ysgolion yng nghaerffili yn cyrraedd lefelau 4 a 5 yn y Gymraeg yn hawdd, wedi symud i ddwyfor roedd lefelau 3 a 4 yn fwy o norm i griwiau tebyg.
Gwelais achosion yn nwyfor ble roedd lefel 3 yn cael ei roi i grwpiau o blant is eu gallu ond yn rhugl gymraeg ac o gartrefi cymraeg gyda chystrawen a'r gallu i dreiglio yn weddol gywir, byddai criw tebyg wedi cael lefel 4 yn y de yn hawdd ac efallai yn cyffwrdd lefel 5.
Fel ti'n ei awgrymu hefyd mae bias pennaeth yn gallu sgiwio ffigyrau drwy unai geisio 'cymreigio' ysgol drwy gael baseline isel o beth yw 'rhugl' tra bod pennaeth ysgol arall yn ceisio dangos eu bod yn ymladd yn erbyn y llif drwy ddangos bod ganddynt lai o blant 'rhugl'!
You can see teacher assessments at key stage 2 for all subjects at
http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableViewer/tableView.aspx
Ynys Mon and gwynedd have failed to increase the proportion of fluent Welsh speakers in schools for seven years. Ynys mon is stuck on 51% Gwynedd on 70%.
Wales wide at GCSE level within Welsh Medium schools only 54% of exams are taken through the medium of Welsh. Since most pupils have gone through both Primary and secondary schools to the age of fifteen this argues a failure to teach the language to a high standard in WM schools.
I believe Welsh schooling is based on a faulty model. Immersion teaching in other countries is a unique method of teaching and the pupils come from just one language group. In Canada Anglophone children go to Immersion schools to learn French. They are not however with Francophone children.
In Wales Welsh first language children should go to WM schools. English first language children wishing to become fluent in Welsh should go to Immersion Welsh schools. The two groups should not be mixed; it doesn't work for either group.
Thanks for that.
Without having data at hand to back me up I'm fairly sure that the fluency rates among the children not from a Welsh speaking background are pretty high in Welsh speaking areas in Ynys Mon & Gwynedd. The figures are stuck because largely English medium schools in english speaking areas fail to advance.
Sorry for the English, but if Anon 6:36 wants us to take his figures (let alone his conclusions) seriously, he needs to provide links ... or at least links that are relevant to the point he is trying to make.
He talks about KS2 assessments, but they show that those achieving the expected level in Welsh (L4+) have gone up steadily from 51.5% in 1999 to 70.0% in 2009 for Ynys Môn and from 55.3% in 1999 to 75.1% in 2009 for Gwynedd. The improvement is welcome, though it is more or less mirrored in other core subjects.
His fluency percentages are for secondary schools, not primaries. But he doesn't appear to have understood the points already made about asking parents who can't speak Welsh to assess whether their children can speak Welsh or speak Welsh fluently, how subjective that term is, or how it is likely to vary from area to area.
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From a different perspective it is interesting to note from Gwynedd's draft WEP that they assess pupils at the end of KS2, putting those who they consider "fluent bilingual" in Cohort A (4.2). That percentage has increased from 67.7% in 2005 to 78.5% in 2009. In addition, there are 4.3% in Cohort B whose English is not quite as good as their Welsh. So 82.8% of children at the end of KS2 are considered to be fluent in Welsh. I'll accept that headteachers are not immune from "massaging" the figures, but this has got to be a more objective and consistent indication of fluency than parental assessment.
At secondary level, the percentage taking the Welsh First Language GCSE has risen from 75.1% to 79.8% in the same five years (4.3). For me, taking and passing WFL is the most objective measure of competence in Welsh, as it will be the standard an employer will look for, just as a GCSE in English is. Over 70% achieve Grades A*-C. As a comparison, the percentage of Welsh children in 2008 who got the equivalent grades in English was 62.4%, and in England was an almost identical 62.7%. But it would be ridiculous to claim that the 37% or so of children who fail to get an A*-C in English are not "fluent in English".
My apologies for clicking on the wrong url. I made no comments on the figures, merely pointing out that Teacher assessment exists at KS2 (It is a statutory requirement).
The question about parental assessment of language ability is valid in the non Welsh speaking areas of Wales but not in the Welsh areas where parents would be aware of what language fluency sounds like.
The definition of fluency is investigated fully by the WLB in the 2004-2006 Welsh use survey but I am taking it that GCSE in Welsh first language can be passed without the pupil being completely fluent.
The WLB survey did look at whether Parents truly knew whether their children were fluent in Welsh. They found that parents exagerated children's fluency.
The comparison with English language pass rates doesn't work since it is not a like for like comparison. Taking Free school meals as a measure of deprivation in schools WM secondary schools are largely ones with a small proportion of FSM pupils. All GCSE results are higher on average in WM schools but like for like results are pretty much the same I think. (Or have I mistaken your point?)
My view is that fluency is too subjective a concept to be of any objective value. But it would be impossible to pass a WFL GCSE without being competent in the language; competent enough to get a job that requires normal, everyday Welsh. In that sense, a GCSE in WFL serves exactly the same function as a GCSE in English does.
But I've always found your attempts to justify yourself amusing. Especially your tendency to mention a source to supposedly add credibility to your views, when it is either irrelevant or says something quite different. In your last comment, it was the claim that the WLB survey showed "parents exaggerated children's fluency". It doesn't say that. It noted that there was a discrepancy between what household respondents said about the language ability (not fluency) of other members of the household. But it also said that it was a two-way street:
"It must be borne in mind that the questioning was a one way process: only those considered Welsh speakers in the first instance were questioned and as a result only a reduction on the first estimate was possible. There was evidence in the 1992 Welsh Social Survey that more respondents were unaware that other members of the household could speak Welsh, than there were of respondents stating that other members could speak Welsh when, in fact, they could not. Therefore, if those who could not speak Welsh in the opinion of the household respondent had been questioned individually, it is possible that the first estimate would have increased rather than fallen." [WLUS p67]
I presume you would not have made the claim that you did without being aware of what the document actually said. Therefore I can only conclude that you were selectively misrepresenting what you knew it said. I think that's why you don't provide links (or links that work) or precise references within those links, for if you did everyone would be able to see that what you claim is true, isn't. You of course are free to make whatever claims you like, but if you misuse data in an attempt to get others to believe what you would like them to believe, you must expect to be laughed at.
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Interestingly enough, the very next section on the same page of the WLUS uses KS assessments in WFL as a benchmark, which is exactly what Cai has done in his new post today. No measure is prefect, but I agree that these (and the WFL GCSE, which is in effect the KS4 assessment) are the most objective and consistent measures we have. WFL assessments are also the target criteria used in the Welsh-medium Education Strategy, with the aim that KS1 assessments should increase from 21% to 25% in 2015 and 30% in 2020; and KS3 assessments from 16% to 19% in 2015 and 23% in 2020 [pages 21 and 23].
I think that these targets are much too low, but that's a different matter. The point is that this is the best yardstick to use, as opposed to subjective ideas about what constitutes fluency.
Dean, and pigs fly :)
http://insurance-rules.info
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