Sunday, October 14, 2012

Homar o ffrae ar y ffordd?

Mae'n debyg bod llawer ohonoch yn cofio'r ffrae yn ol yn 2000 pan enillodd George W Bush arlywyddiaeth America, er iddo gael llai o bleidleisiau nag Al Gore.  Mae'r math yma o beth yn bosibl yn yr UDA oherwydd nad niferoedd pleidleisiau sy'n bwysig, ond cynrychiolwyr etholiadol.  Mae pob talaith yn danfon cynrychiolwyr i 'goleg 'etholiadol' ac mae'r cynrychiolwyr hynny yn pleidleisio tros arlywydd.  Mae'r sawl sy'n fuddugol mewn talaith yn cael enwebu pob cynrychiolydd.

Felly gallai (dyweder) y Democratiaid ennill yng Nghaliffornia o un bleidlais yn unig, ond cael pob un o'r 55 cynrychiolydd o anfonir i'r coleg etholiadol gan y dalaith boblog honno.  270 cynrychiolydd sydd ei angen er mwyn cael mwyafrif - ac felly digon o bleidleisiau i ennill yr etholiad.

Tan ei berfformiad trychinebus yn y ddadl etholiadol roedd yn edrych fel petai Obama am ennill yn weddol hawdd, ond ers hynny mae Romney wedi bod ar y blaen yn y polau cenedlaethol.  Ond - fel rydym wedi awgrymu dydi hynny ddim yn ddigon.  Mae'n rhaid ennill mwyafrif o gynrychiolwyr - a dydi'r rhan fwyaf o gynrychiolwyr ddim ar gael i'r naill ymgeisydd neu'r llall.  Er enghraifft dydi Romney byth am gael cynrychiolwyr o Efrog Newydd, California, Massachusetts,  neu Illinois - taleithiau poblog sy'n siwr o fotio i Obama.  Yn yr un modd fydd Obama yn cael dim o Texas, Utah na Kansas.

Yn wir - nifer cymharol fychan o daleithiau sydd ar gael i'r naill ochr na'r llall - Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michegan, New Hampshire,  Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia a Wisconsin.  Mae'r polau yn awgrymu mai Obama sydd am fynd a'r rhan fwyaf o'r cynrychiolwyr o'r taleithiau yma.  Gellir disgwyl udo a rhincian dannedd ar raddfa bythgofiadwy os bydd Obama yn ennill, er iddo gael llai o bleidleisiau na Romney.

Mae'r gyfundrefn yn hollol boncyrs wrth gwrs.  Oddi mewn i'r taleithiau prin hynny sydd yn y ras, nifer cymharol fychan o'u hetholwyr sydd ar gael i'r naill ochr neu'r llall - mae'r rhan fwyaf o Americanwyr yn sefydlog o ran hunaniaeth gwleidyddol - lleiafrif sy'n agored i berswad.  Ar ben hynny mae llawer eisoes wedi bwrw eu pleidlais - mae'r rhan fwyaf o daleithiau yn caniatau pleidleisio cynnar.  Mae cost yr etholiad yn anferthol i'r pleidiau - cymaint a £3.8 miliwn o bosibl - a bydd cyfran mawr iawn o hwnnw wedi ei wario mewn nifer fechan o daleithiau yn ceisio dylanwadu ar nifer cymharol fychan o etholwyr i newid ochr.  Ychydig o ynni a chyfalaf a fuddsoddir yn y rhan fwyaf o'r wlad - mae pawb yn gwybod sut mae'r rhan fwyaf o'r wlad am bleidleisio..

Mae'n rhyfeddol - i'r wlad sy'n ystyried ei bod ar flaen y gad o ran democratiaeth gael ei hun gyda threfn etholiadol sy'n gorfodi'r pleidiau i wario swmiau anferth o bres yn ceisio dwyn perswad ar ffracsiwn bach o'r etholwyr, tra'n rhoi ychydig iawn o sylw i bawb arall.  Siawns y byddai'n gallach - ac yn fwy democrataidd - jyst cyfri'r pleidleisiau i gyd  a gadael i'r sawl sydd wedi cael y mwyaf ennill - yn union fel mwyafrif llethol cyfundrefnau etholiadol arlywyddol eraill.

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