Monday, June 01, 2009

Pam bod y sgandal treuliau mor niweidiol i Lafur?

Mae'r sgandal wedi cael effaith syfrdanol ar gefnogaeth Llafur - gydag un pol heddiw yn awgrymu y byddant yn cael llai nag 20% petai etholiad cyffredinol yn cael ei hymladd heddiw - y sgor isaf erioed i blaid sy'n llywodraethu. Mae rhai o'r polau ar gyfer etholiadau Ewrop hyd yn oed yn waeth.

Effeithwyd ar y Toriaid hefyd mae'n debyg, ond i raddau llai o lawer. Ar un olwg mae hyn yn rhyfedd - mae sgandalau'r Toriaid wedi bod o leiaf cyn waethed a rhai Llafur, ac maent wedi bod mor lluosog - ac mae yna lai o lawer o Doriaid yn y senedd i gael y cyfle i bechu.

Yn ddi amau mae sawl rheswm am hyn - bod gwynt yn hwyliau'r Toriaid beth bynnag, a bod pobl yn tueddu i feio plaid sydd wedi bod yn rheoli ers mwy na degawd am gyfundrefn sydd yn ddi amau yn gwbl llwgr, er enghraifft.

Nid dyma'r rhesymau pwysicaf fodd bynnag. Mae'r prif reswm wedi ei wreiddio'n dwfn yn y ffordd mae'r Blaid Lafur yn gweld ac yn diffinio ei hun. Yn annad dim arall mae Llafur yn gweld ei hun fel plaid 'foesol' - plaid sydd yn meddiannu'r ucheldir moesol. Dydi'r hunan gyfiawnder yma ddim yn annwylo'r blaid i mi a dweud y gwir, ond mae'r ffaith eu bod wedi adeiladu naratif gwleidyddol pwerus o amgylch y canfyddiad wedi bod yn un o'r elfennau pwysicaf yn eu llwyddiant etholiadol.

Y broblem gyda hyn wrth gwrs ydi bod y naratif yn datgymalu'n llwyr pan mae'r prif edefyn sy'n rhedeg trwyddo yn chwalu - a dyna'n union sydd yn digwydd pan mae pobl yn casglu bod llawer o'r sawl sy'n arwain y blaid yn lleol ac yn genedlaethol yn lladron ac yn dwyllwyr.

'Dydi'r Toriaid ddim yn y sefyllfa yma - 'dydi bod yn uwchraddol foesol erioed wedi bod wrth galon eu naratif gwleidyddol, felly 'dydi'r naratif ddim yn datgymalu pan mae'n dod yn amlwg mai moesoldeb lladron pen ffordd sydd ganddynt.

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